TVSBot Blog
Auto trading, technical analysis, quant strategies, crypto — for traders who want to write their own.
Quant Stories3 posts
Bridgewater, CTA, Renaissance, and other institutional storiesKevin Zhou + Galois — Saw Through UST Five Months Early but Only Made $15M
Who was the earliest public warning voice in crypto before Luna collapsed in May 2022? Born in Shanghai, moved to the US at age three, Berkeley MFE. He made $15M, not the rumored 'hundreds of millions' — the lesson is the discipline of being 'right on direction, deliberately small on size'.
Michael Burry — What He's Actually Been Doing in the 17 Years Since The Big Short
The Big Short turned him into a legend. But in the 17 years since 2008 he's fought with the same framework — exiting GameStop early, missing on Tesla, flipping on China tech, the 2023 'Sell' tweet that backfired in 8 weeks, the 2025 AI shorts, and his strangely hands-off stance on BTC.
Bridgewater + Ray Dalio + the All-Weather Strategy
Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater in his own apartment in 1975 and grew it to $124B AUM over 47 years. The design logic of All-Weather, the standout 2008/2010 campaigns, the 2022 retirement controversy, and the fallout from Copeland's 'The Fund'.
Technical Analysis8 posts
RSI, MACD, EMA, Bollinger Bands, candlesticksBollinger Bands Complete Guide — Not Just 'Sell at Upper Band, Buy at Lower Band'
The indicator John Bollinger created in the 1980s. The principles (why ±2 standard deviations), Squeeze breakouts, the %B indicator, the Walking the Bands phenomenon, and Bollinger's own 19 rules.
Candlestick Patterns Complete Guide — 300-Year-Old Wisdom from a Japanese Rice Trader
Invented by Munehisa Homma in the 1700s and brought to the West by Steve Nison in 1990. Ten classic patterns (engulfing / doji / hammer / shooting star / morning star / evening star / three black crows) with real win rates, Pine auto-detection, and why the win rates in books can't be trusted.
Moving Averages Complete Guide — SMA, EMA, and the Real Meaning of the 200-Day
SMA vs EMA, what 5/20/50/200 each represent, the real win rate of golden/death crosses, multi-MA stacking strategies, and why institutions treat the SMA 200 as sacred.
Ichimoku Cloud Complete Guide — 30 Years of Research by a Japanese Journalist
The 'Ichimoku Kinko Hyo' published by Goichi Hosoda in 1969. Full formulas for the five lines, how to read the cloud, the 'sanrentei' perfect bullish signal, Pine examples, and how it differs from EMA / RSI / BB.
MACD Indicator Complete Guide — The Real Use of Golden/Death Crosses
What the three MACD lines actually do, why a pure cross has only a 50% win rate, zero-line filtering, histogram contraction, and a full divergence-detection implementation.
RSI Indicator Complete Guide — Beyond 30/70
How RSI is calculated, four advanced uses (divergence, the 50 centerline, dual timeframes), Pine code, and an analysis of common mistakes.
Support / Resistance / Supply & Demand Zones — Why Certain Price Levels Matter
The difference between S/R and supply/demand zones, strength tiers, Smart Money / ICT concepts (Order Block / Liquidity Pool / FVG), distinguishing real breakouts from false ones, and Pine auto-drawn lines.
Volume Profile / VWAP / TWAP — The Secret of Institutional Order Flow
Principles behind Volume Profile (volume-by-price distribution), VWAP (volume-weighted average price), and TWAP (time-weighted average price), plus institutional execution logic, crypto's 24/7 special cases, and a Pine VWAP example.
Strategy Types4 posts
Trend, mean reversion, breakout, pairs tradingBreakout Strategy Complete Guide — Donchian / NR7 / Opening Range
Three classic breakout strategies: Donchian Channel (the Turtle core), NR7 contraction, and ORB opening range. Three false-breakout filters: ATR range, volume, and trend direction.
CTA Trend Following Explained — From the Turtle Traders to Crisis Alpha
In 1983 Richard Dennis ran a Wall Street Journal ad to recruit 23 amateurs, trained them for two weeks, and gave each $500K-$2M. Five years later they'd made $175M. The Turtle rules plus Pine code and a Crisis Alpha breakdown.
Mean Reversion Strategy Explained — Why LTCM Lost $4.6B Running It
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck math foundations, four implementations (RSI / Z-score / Bollinger / pairs trading), lessons from the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management collapse, and five safety rules for retail traders.
Pairs Trading / Statistical Arbitrage — How Morgan Stanley Made Its First Fortune in 1980
From cointegration, spread, and Z-Score math foundations to Morgan Stanley's 1986 black-box origins, the LTCM 1998 lessons, the limits of BTC vs ETH pairs in crypto, plus Pine examples and five common retail pitfalls.
Strategy Comparison1 post
Side-by-side strategy comparisons to help you chooseRisk Management2 posts
Kelly criterion, ATR sizing, stop-loss mechanicsATR Complete Guide — Sizing Positions with Volatility
The volatility indicator Wilder invented in 1978. Four real-world uses (dynamic stops / Turtle position sizing / breakout filtering / trend strength) with Pine examples. Core risk management.
Kelly Criterion and Position Sizing Explained — Why Most People Use 'Half Kelly'
Original Kelly Criterion plus its trading application, the Edward Thorp story, why Half Kelly became industry consensus, and a Pine implementation.
Security1 post
API keys, platform architecture, attack defenseClaude × Pine1 post
Automation Gotchas1 post
Architecture Analysis1 post
Crypto Strategy8 posts
Cross-Exchange Spread Arbitrage — Why Retail Rarely Captures It
Three walls: withdrawal latency, bot speed, and hidden costs. Why Mt.Gox's 1100% spread and FTX's 30% spread couldn't be arbitraged. Quasi-arbitrage approaches still viable for retail: funding rate spreads, triangular arb, and Hyperliquid CEX-DEX.
Crypto Trading Tax Guide — Taiwan / Hong Kong / Singapore Compared
Taiwan's overseas income plus AMT (NT$7.5M threshold), Hong Kong's 16.5% profits tax, and Singapore's 0% capital gains. CRS reporting, the Koinly tool, and the risk of being deemed a 'professional trader'.
Crypto Exchange Deep Comparison — Fees / API / Liquidity / Security
A full comparison of 8 major exchanges: Binance / OKX / Bybit / Bitget / BingX / Gate.io / Hyperliquid / Coinbase. Five recommended combos by trading style (spot holders / short-term perp / funding rate arb / altcoin hunters / privacy-first).
Perpetual Funding Rate Arbitrage Guide — Earn Without Betting on Direction
Funding rate formula comparison across three major exchanges (Binance/OKX/Bybit), a full delta-neutral arbitrage implementation, breakdown of Ethena USDe's $14.8B model, and realistic annualized returns (1-8% in bear markets, 100%+ in bull markets).
Grid Trading Complete Guide — Why LUNA Zeroed Out Every Grid
Arithmetic vs geometric grid formulas, which markets suit grids and which don't, a Pionex vs Binance Grid platform comparison, and lessons from LUNA's three-day collapse to zero in 2022.
Hyperliquid DEX Perpetuals Complete Guide — How a Self-Built L1 Order-Book DEX Works
HyperBFT consensus, CLOB (not AMM), HYPE token design with 0% VC ownership, comparison with dYdX / GMX, API auth via wallet signature, agent wallet permission isolation, and TVSBot referral code.
On-Chain Analysis for Beginners — Reading Glassnode / Dune / Nansen
Four key metrics: Exchange Inflow/Outflow, UTXO Age / HODL Waves, SOPR, and MVRV. The strengths of Glassnode (metrics) / Dune (SQL) / Nansen (address labels), and how to fold on-chain signals into a trading system.
Perpetuals vs Spot — How to Choose a Strategy? Four-Dimension Comparison
Four-dimension comparison: cost, leverage, shorting ability, and tax/compounding. Which strategies fit perpetuals, which fit spot, plus a hybrid 'spot accumulation + perp hedge' implementation.
Pine Script1 post
Retail Playbook1 post
Complete Tutorial1 post
Quant Basics1 post
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